Friday, September 20, 2019

Supply and Demand: Coffee


The constantly changing price of coffee is considered price volatility. The volatility boils down to a bunch of different factors.
Demand factors:
  • (i) Growing demand in emerging nations as per capita incomes rise - consumption of coffee in China has doubled in the last five years
  • (ii) Prices of substitutes for coffee such as tea and cocoa
Supply factors:
  • Climatic conditions e.g. the impact of el Nino
  • Existing levels of coffee stocks (inventories)
  • The number of countries producing coffee 
  • Productivity and investment in coffee production in the major coffee farming nations
These factors combined with mounting impacts of climate change contribute to the high volatility.
As shown in the graph the price of coffee has fluctuated a bunch over time. This is to due to the push and pulls of supply and demand. Last year the price of beans hit a historic low as the demand growth was more than offset by the supply. This de-incentivized farmers to grow as much coffee this yea inevitably leading to less supply and higher prices. As farmers in Brazil and Columbia overproduced their currencies also depreciated against the dollar. In the end, this was good for US consumers bad for farmers.

Additionally despite another a year of a record harvest this year Brazilian farmers may be incentivized to hold on to the crop rather than sell. The current low prices are simply not profitable so it makes more sense for farmers to hold onto the crop until prices go up.

Is there anything that should be done to stabilize the industry so both suppliers and consumers are happy? Regulations etc?

https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/coffee-price-forecast-will-your-cup-of-coffee-get-more-expensive-in-2019
https://fortune.com/2018/12/29/price-of-coffee-beans-2019/
https://dailycoffeenews.com/2018/11/26/up-down-supply-vs-demand-forces-and-the-c/
https://www.macrotrends.net/2535/coffee-prices-historical-chart-data
https://www.tutor2u.net/economics/reference/price-volatility-in-the-coffee-market

2 comments:

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  2. I like how you applied supply and demand to a very relevant product that many people use. It's interesting to see the supply factors and demand factors. It's interesting that one of the demand factors includes coffee consumption in China, especially since they consume the most tea, which is one of the substitutes. It also makes sense for farmers to hold onto the crop until the prices go up, because if you look at the supply and demand graph, if the supply curve shifts left, the equilibrium point is at a higher price.

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