One of the main reasons why major conflicts may have decreased is because the opportunity cost of going to war against another country to obtain resources is greater than simply trading for those resources through comparative advantage. Before the era of globalization, when trade was more difficult and less widespread, limited resources was a major driving force behind war. A good example of this is Japan's territorial expansion in 1930-1940 prior to World War 2. Being an island nation, Japan had always been constrained by a lack of resources, and went into World War 2 importing 90 percent of its oil, 60 percent of which was from the US in 1941. This lack of resources and reliance on other countries prompted them to war in order to satisfy the vast material needs of their marine based, recently industrialized economy. After World War 2, however, the US aided in Japan's rise to become a major exporter in products such as cars and electronics. After gaining the comparative advantage in these products, Japan was able to trade them in the rapidly globalizing economy in order to satisfy their resource needs.
In conclusion, globalization has potentially removed one of the major causes of war, as it is now more costly for highly developed countries to go to war than to stay peaceful. By choosing war against another globalized economy, developed countries cripple their own economies, as it is much more difficult to manufacture resources previously obtained easily through trade. However, only a few decades have passed since the rise of globalization, and only time will tell if major wars have been completely eradicated.
https://oefresearch.org/think-peace/evidence-decline-war
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-globalization-of-politics-american-foreign-policy-for-a-new-century/
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/japans-territorial-expansion-1931-1942
https://www.histclo.com/essay/war/ww2/stra/w2j-oil.html
I agree with you Ben. Throughout history wars have focused heavily around resources and ideals. Due to globalization and comaprative advantage, that urge to get more resources than your neighboring countries has declined greatly. As you said this pretty much eliminates the conquering of territory in order to obtain resources as a cause of war, resulting one of the two main motivations for war being eliminated.
ReplyDeleteI agree that globalization can help prevent wars from happening but that is only if the terms of trade are the same for both countries. Like in the documentary, Mkapa argued that globalization for them was very beneficial to the United States. They were not able to sell their products to the U.S. and had to be given foreign aid as a result. The U.S. economy was growing while theirs did not. Without creating an even playing field for globalization, tensions between countries increase and it would no longer prevent wars.
ReplyDeleteInteresting point that you make here: the liberal view that economic interdependence has the capacity to end major wars. I'd like to argue the opposing side, though, that globalization might reduce, but not end major wars. Viewing world politics through a more realist lens, I don't think there can ever be forever lasting peace between major powers. Furthermore, the international system is particularly prone to great power war when the prevailing dominant power is challenged by a rising power that is unsatisfied with the existing distribution of influence. Thus, as long as nations take into consideration "relative gains" vs. "absolute gains" war will break out.
ReplyDeleteThis is a good point that corresponds to what Bill Clinton said in the documentary regarding globalization and interconnection. It is true that globalization connects us universally, which would result in a more unified understanding of one another. I agree that this could potentially help prevent wars as long as interconnection between nations is positive and inspires economic and social growth.
ReplyDeleteIt interesting that globalization has causes a decrease in war. It makes sense that countries would not want to go to war as much because with an interconnected economy it would be too costly. However, if there were to be a conflict that did result in war it would likely result in a big war because everything is so interconnected. If two countries went to war they wouldn't be the only countries effected by it because the world is so interconnected, this could draw more countries into the war which would create big problems for the world.
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